The modern mass-participation event is no longer built around the idea that everyone on the start line is chasing a personal best. It is now a mix of runners, joggers, walkers, charity entrants, social runners, and people taking on the distance for the first time. That makes the experience better for more people, but it also changes the timing profile of the race.
The Short Cut
- Mass-participation races are getting bigger, broader, and more inclusive, pushing average finish times upward even as elite performances keep improving.
- The main drivers are a larger share of first-timers, more socially motivated runners, more walkers, more older entrants, and event formats designed to welcome the widest possible field.
- Running USA's analysis of 8.4 million finish times (2013 to 2023) found the average male marathon time moved from 4:18 to 4:17; women held at 4:43. Half-marathon and 10K averages got slower over the same period.
- Rising average times do not signal a sport in decline. They signal a sport that has become genuinely welcoming.
- The 2027 TCS London Marathon will expand to 100,000 participants across two days in response to 1.33 million ballot entries: a field built largely around completion, charity, and community.
Why averages drift up
One major reason is simple: more people are entering for completion rather than competition. Organisers are increasingly focused on lowering barriers to entry and creating events that feel accessible, social, and rewarding beyond the stopwatch. That is good for participation, but it naturally pulls average finish times upward.
A second factor is the changing participant mix. Strong growth among younger adults, near gender parity in the younger age bands, and more runners entering through charity places means many of those runners are enthusiastic but not always training with the intensity or consistency of seasoned racers.
A third factor is the rise of walkers and hybrid participants. When organisers welcome more run-walk strategies and later finishers, the event becomes more inclusive and sustainable. The average finish time rises because the field now includes people operating at very different speeds.
Elite speed is different
It is worth separating the mass field from the top end. Elite marathon times continue to fall, driven by better training, pacing, nutrition, and footwear. Running USA's analysis of 8.4 million finish times from 2013 to 2023 found that the average male marathon time barely moved, from 4:18 to 4:17, while the average female time held at 4:43. By contrast, half-marathon, 10K, and 5K averages all got slower over the same period.
The sport can be getting faster at the top and slower on average at the same time. The world record conversation is about marginal gains and precision. The mass-participation conversation is about access, enjoyment, and a broader range of goals.
The post-pandemic factor
After the pandemic, many runners came back to events looking for structure, community, and a meaningful challenge rather than a fast time. Mass participation benefited from that desire, but the same trend encouraged broader entry and more relaxed pacing. When participants race less often or choose longer-term goals, their average pace reflects fitness built around life constraints rather than pure racing sharpness.
What the numbers mean
Rising average times do not signal a decline in the sport. They usually indicate that the sport has become more welcoming. More people are taking part, more runners are arriving from different age groups and backgrounds, and more events are designed around finish-line success rather than speed alone.
The trajectory points in one direction. In June 2026, London Marathon Events announced the 2027 TCS London Marathon would expand to 100,000 participants across two days, Saturday 24 and Sunday 25 April, with the elite and age-category fields separated by sex. The decision was a direct response to 1.33 million ballot entries and is projected to raise over £150 million for charity. That charity projection matters: an event that size, drawing that many first-timers and fundraisers, generates average times shaped by purpose rather than pace.
A slower average is the by-product of a bigger tent. In mass-participation racing, that is often exactly what organisers are building toward. The sport gains volume and diversity even if the stopwatch tells a different story.
For some, success is a fast marathon. For others, it is finishing, fundraising, returning from injury, running with friends, or crossing the line after months of training. That broader purpose is what is reshaping average times.
Related reading: if you are curious how the ballot boom connects to these participation trends, see Why Marathon Participation Is Surging Worldwide. For the elite side of the story, Marathon Times Are Changing Fast covers the science behind the record-breaking era in full. If you are planning your own race, the Berlin Marathon and Rotterdam Marathon pages cover two of Europe's flattest, most time-friendly courses.